Title: Evaluating the Ability of Statistical and Photochemical Models to Capture the Impacts of Biomass Burning Smoke on Urban Air Quality in Texas
Institution(s) Represented: Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc (AER) (PI: Matthew Alvarado
Lead PI: Matthew Alvarado
AQRP Project Manager: Elena McDonald-Buller
TCEQ Project Liaison: Chola Regmi
Awarded Amount: $161,388.00
Abstract
Understanding the impact of domestic fire smoke on urban air quality (AQ) requires understanding (i) the chemistry of the smoke before it reaches the city and (ii) the changes in the urban production rate of O3 and PM2.5 caused by the smoke. The relative importance of these two pathways on the air quality impacts of domestic fire smoke is not well understood and it is unclear which processes should be targeted to reduce the overall uncertainty.
In addition, three-dimensional (3D) photochemical models like CAMx can have trouble representing the near-source chemistry of the smoke plume and the impact of smoke mixing with urban pollution due to a combination of low spatial resolution near fires and incorrect representation of the chemistry of smoke-specific VOCs (e.g., Baker et al., 2016). These limitations in physical approaches have led to the development of a variety of statistical approaches to estimate the impact of biomass burning on urban AQ (e.g., Gong et al., 2017; de Foy et al., 2021). However, little work has been done to compare the statistical and 3D photochemical approaches or to identify priorities for further development of both approaches. Thus, the US EPA and US Forest Service organized assessment of smoke research needs noted this was a key priority for future smoke chemistry research (Alvarado et al., 2022). A statistical analysis of the impacts of domestic fire emission on urban air quality in Texas and a statistical evaluation of the ability of the CAMx model to simulate these impacts would greatly help TCEQ air quality managers understand the impacts of domestic fires on Texas air quality and human health.
Thus, the objectives of this project are to:
- Use generalized additive models (GAMs) driven with satellite and surface observations to examine the impact of fires on background and total O3 and PM2.5 in Texas urban areas.
- Examine the ability of CAMx photochemical model to simulate these fire impacts by applying similar statistical methods to the CAMx results
- Use any statistically significant differences found to prioritize different approaches to improve the ability of CAMx to simulate the impacts of domestic fires on air quality
Work Plan: projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\SOW 22-003 FINAL.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Aug 2022.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Sept 2022.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Oct 2022.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Nov 2022.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Dec 2022.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Jan 2023.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Feb 2023.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Mar 2023.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Apr 2023.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR May 2023.pdf
Technical Report(s): projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\22-003 MTR Jun 2023.pdf
QAPP: projectinfoFY22_23\22-003\QAPP 22-003 FINAL.pdf
GAM Training Materials (accessible through UT Box):
-Materials
-Recording (.mp4)
